The major economic indicators of the industry realized slight growth in the 1st quarter of 2012, and the starting status was weaker than the same period of the last year, however the growths showed steady trend. The industry export was in slump, with growth greatly weaker than the same period of the last year. Benefit status of the industry showed optimistic trend.
1. Industry Operation in the 1st Quarter of 2012
According to the statistics on 422 key member enterprises under 11 branches respectively engaged in tires, cycle tires, rubber hoses & rubber belts, rubber products, rubber shoes, latexes, carbon black, comprehensive utilization of waste rubber, machinery moulds, rubber chemicals and framework materials, in the 1st quarter, the realized industrial output value at the current price was RMB 73.189 billion yuan with the year-on-year growth of 9.35%; the realized sales revenue was RMB 71.813 billion yuan with the year-on-year growth of 6.84%; and the realized export delivery value was RMB 21.027 billion yuan with the year-on-year growth of 10.36%. The realized profit and tax of the industry was RMB 4.835 billion yuan with the year-on-year growth of 42.33%, and the realized profit was RMB 2.665 billion yuan with the year-on-year growth of 39.54%. Among the 354 key enterprises (excluding those engaged in rubber chemicals and framework materials), 63 enterprises had deficits with the deficit range of 17.8%; and the deficit amount was RMB 179 million yuan with the year-on-year decrease of 49.99%. Refer to Fig. 1 for the growth of industrial output value at current price of the industries and specialized industries listed on the statistics of CRIA in the 1st quarter of 2012. Refer to Fig. 2 for the main indicator growth of rubber industry in the 1st quarter of 2011 and 2012. Refer to Fig. 3 for the year-on-year growth of main indicators of rubber industry of 2012.
Fig. 1 Growth of Gross Industrial Output Value of the Industries and Specialized
Industries Listed on the Statistics of CRIA in the 1st Quarter of 2012
Fig. 2 Main Indicator Growth of Rubber Industry in the 1st Quarter of 2012
Fig. 3 Year-on-year Growth of Main Indicators of Rubber Industry of 2012
1.1 Tires
Refer to Fig. 4 for the main indicator growth of tires of the 45 key member enterprises of tires in the 1st quarter of 2011 and 2012. Refer to Fig. 5 for the year-on-year growth of main indicators of tires of 2012.
In the 1st quarter of 2012, compared with the same period of last year, the industrial output value at current price increased by 9.64%, the sales revenue increased by 5.95%, the comprehensive casing output increased by 0.07%, the radial tire output increased by 0.68%, and the all steel radial tire output increased by 3.66% with the radial rate reaching 87.25% with the year-on-year growth of 0.53%. The export tire delivery value increased by 7.83%, and the export rate (value) reached 32.91% with the year-on-year decrease of 0.55%. The export tire delivery volume increased by 1.67%, and the export rate (volume) reached 42.69% with the year-on-year growth of 0.67%.
Fig. 4 Main Indicator Growth of Tires in the 1st Quarter of 2011 and 2012
Fig. 5 Year-on-year Growth of Main Indicators of Tires of 2012
1.2 Cycle tires
Refer to Fig. 6 for the main indicator growth of cycle tires of the 30 key enterprises of cycle tires in the 1st quarter of 2011 and 2012. Refer to Fig. 7 for the year-on-year growth of main indicators of cycle tires of 2012.
In the 1st quarter of 2012, compared with the same period of last year, the gross industrial output value at current price increased by 3.53%, and the realized sales revenue increased by 5.02%; among the leading products, the bicycle casing output decreased by 8.37%, the motorcycle casing output increased by 2.73%, and the motor-assisted bicycle casing output increased by 85.08%. The realized export delivery value increased by 17.32% compared with the same period of last year, and the export rate (value) reached 23.36%, which increased by 2.75%.
Fig. 6 Main Indicator Growth of Cycle Tires in the 1st Quarter of 2011 and 2012
Fig. 7 Year-on-Year Growth of Main Indicators of Cycle Tires of 2012
1.3 Rubber hoses & rubber belts
Refer to Fig. 8 for the main indicator growth of rubber hoses & rubber belts of the 51 key enterprises of rubber hoses & rubber belts in the 1st quarter of 2011 and 2012. Refer to Fig. 9 for the year-on-year growth of main indicators of rubber hoses & rubber belts of 2012.
In the 1st quarter of 2012, compared with the same period of last year, the gross industrial output value at current price increased by 12.07%, and the realized sales revenue increased by 9.47%; the main product conveyor belt output increased by 17.9%, the V belt output increased by 10.98%, and the rubber hose output decreased by 10.7%. The export delivery value increased by 8.8%, and the export rate (value) reached 13.43%, which decreased by 0.4%.
Fig. 8 Main Indicator Growth of Rubber Hoses & Rubber Belts in the 1st Quarter of 2011 and 2012
Fig. 9 Year-on-Year Growth of Main Indicators of Rubber Hoses & Rubber Belts of 2012
1.4 Rubber products
Refer to Fig. 10 for the main indicator growth of rubber products of the 53 key enterprises of rubber products in the 1st quarter of 2011 and 2012. Refer to Fig. 11 for the year-on-year growth of main indicators of rubber products of 2012.
In the 1st quarter of 2012, compared with the same period of last year, the gross industrial output value at current price decreased by 11.14%, and the realized sales revenue decreased by 0.16%; the main product “O” rings decreased by 47.16%, and the auto anti-vibration articles decreased by 48.36%. The realized export delivery value decreased by 7.76%, and the export rate (value) reached 23.46%, which increased by 0.86%.
Fig. 10 Main Indicator Growth of Rubber Products in the 1st Quarter of 2011 and 2012
Fig. 11 Year-on-Year Growth of Main Indicators of Rubber Products of 2012
1.5 Latexes
Refer to Fig. 12 for the main indicator growth of latexes of the 29 key enterprises of latexes in the 1st quarter of 2011 and 2012. Refer to Fig. 13 for the year-on-year growth of main indicators of latexes of 2012.
In the 1st quarter of 2012, compared with the same period of last year, the industrial output value at current price increased by 14.6%, and the realized sales revenue increased by 9.85%; the main product condom output decreased by 1.11%, the medical gloves output decreased by 7.25%, and the examination gloves output decreased by 11.8%. The realized export delivery value increased by 8.56%, and the export rate (value) reached 47.09%, which decreased by 2.62%.
Fig. 12 Main Indicator Growth of Latexes in the 1st Quarter of 2011 and 2012
Fig. 13 Year-on-Year Growth of Main Indicators of Latexes of 2012
1.6 Rubber shoes
Refer to Fig. 14 for the main indicator growth of rubber shoes of the 26 key enterprises of rubber shoes in the 1st quarter of 2011 and 2012. Refer to Fig. 15 for the year-on-year growth of main indicators of rubber shoes of 2012.
In the 1st quarter of 2012, compared with the same period of last year, the industrial output value at current price increased by 6.53%, the realized sales revenue decreased by 8.31%, and the realized rubber shoes output decreased by 7.23%. The realized export delivery value increased by 0.66%, and the export rate (value) reached 8.29%, which increased by 0.74%. The export of rubber shoes decreased by 13.3%, and the export rate (volume) reached 11.54%, which decreased by 0.81%.
Fig. 14 Main Indicator Growth of Rubber Shoes in the 1st Quarter of 2011 and 2012
Fig. 15 Year-on-Year Growth of Main Indicators of Rubber Shoes of 2012
1.7 Carbon black
Refer to Fig. 16 for the main indicator growth of carbon black of the 37 key enterprises of carbon black in the 1st quarter of 2011 and 2012. Refer to Fig. 17 for the year-on-year growth of main indicators of carbon black of 2012.
In the 1st quarter of 2012, compared with the same period of last year, the industrial output value at current price increased by 16.03%, and the realized sales revenue increased by 14.07%; the gross carbon black output increased by 19.6%, in which the wet carbon black output increased by 21.5%. The export delivery value increased by 157.44%, and the export rate (value) reached 15.8%, which increased by 8.68%. The export of carbon black increased by 195.97%, and the export rate (volume) reached 15.92%, which increased by 9.49%.
Fig. 16 Main Indicator Growth of Carbon Black in the 1st Quarter of 2011 and 2012
Fig. 17 Year-on-Year Growth of Main Indicators of Carbon Black of 2012
1.8 Comprehensive utilization of waste rubber
Refer to Fig. 18 for the main indicator growth of comprehensive utilization of waste rubber of the 57 key enterprises of waste rubber in the 1st quarter of 2011 and 2012. Refer to Fig. 19 for the year-on-year growth of main indicators of comprehensive utilization of waste rubber of 2012.
In the 1st quarter of 2012, compared with the same period of last year, the industrial output value at current price increased by 17.09%, and the sales revenue increased by 18.07%. The produced reclaimed rubber increased by 9.23% and the produced rubber powder increased by 7.18%. The realized export delivery value increased by 1.89%; and the export rate (value) reached 5.45%, which decreased by 0.81%.
Fig. 18 Main Indicator Growth of Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Rubber in the 1st Quarter of 2011 and 2012
Fig. 19 Year-on-Year Growth of Main Indicators of Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Rubber of 2012
1.9 Machinery moulds
Refer to Fig. 20 for the main indicator growth of moulds of the 26 key enterprises of machinery moulds in the 1st quarter of 2011 and 2012. Refer to Fig. 21 for the year-on-year growth of main indicators of moulds of 2012.
In the 1st quarter of 2012, compared with the same period of last year, the industrial output value at current price increased by 16.14%, and the realized sales revenue increased by 17.83%; the radial tire mould output increased by 15.81%. The realized export delivery value increased by 14.53%, and the export rate (value) reached 18.67%, which decreased by 0.54%.
Fig. 20 Main Indicator Growth of Moulds in the 1st Quarter of 2011 and 2012
Fig. 21 Year-on-Year Growth of Main Indicators of Moulds of 2012
1.10 Rubber chemicals
Refer to Fig. 22 for the main indicator growth of rubber chemicals of the 45 key enterprises of rubber chemicals in the 1st quarter of 2011 and 2012. Refer to Fig. 23 for the year-on-year growth of main indicators of rubber chemicals of 2012.
In the 1st quarter of 2012, compared with the same period of last year, the realized gross industrial output value increased by 20.18%, the realized sales revenue increased by 19.38%, and the gross rubber chemicals output increased by 25.05%, in which, the main product accelerating agent output increased by 10.53%, and the anti deteriorant output increased by 20.13%. The export delivery value increased by 17.41%, and the export rate (value) reached 31.91%, which decreased by 0.54%. The export of rubber chemicals increased by 44.25%, and the export rate (volume) reached 31.34%, which increased by 4.17%.
Fig. 22 Main Indicator Growth of Rubber Chemicals in the 1st Quarter of 2011 and 2012
Fig. 23 Year-on-Year Growth of Main Indicators of Rubber Chemicals of 2012
1.11 Framework materials
In the 1st quarter of 2012, 23 key enterprises of framework materials produced framework materials of 580,000 tons in total, including fiber cord fabrics of 89,000 tons with a year-on-year growth of 11.25%, steel cord of 351,000 tons with a year-on-year growth of 4.15%, and bead wire of 140,000 tons with a year-on-year growth of 7.69%.
2. Market Situation in the 1st Quarter of 2012
2.1 Sales prices of tires
According to the monitoring on the retail prices of 4 kinds of truck radial tires (12.00R20-18PR, 11.00R20-16PR, 12R22.5-16PR and 8.25R16-16PR) and 4 kinds of radial passenger tires (215/55R16, 205/55R16, 195/55R15 and 165/70R14) in the market, with the base point of January 2011, upon computation, the price index of all steel radial tire in March 2012 is 106.0, decreased by 0.19 compared with the last month; and the price index of semi-steel radial passenger tire is 103.15, increased by 4.05 compared with the last month.
Refer to Fig. 24 for the price index trend of truck tires and passenger tires.
Fig. 24 Price Index Trend of Truck Tires and Passenger Tires
According to the statistics by China Association of Automobile Manufactures, in March 2012, the production and sales of the automobiles reached 1,880,600 and 1,838,600 vehicles respectively, increased by 16.9% and 17.3% respectively compared with the last month, and increased by 3.4% and 1.0% respectively compared with the same period of the last year. In the 1st quarter, the production and sales of the automobiles reached 4,784,200 and 4,792,700 vehicles respectively, decreased by 1.8% and 3.4% slightly compared with the same period of the last year.
In March, the production and sales of the motorcycles reached 2,098,200 and 2,069,100 vehicles respectively, increased by 15.4% and 12.2% respectively compared with the last month, and decreased by 10.2% and 9.9% respectively compared with the same period of the last year. In the 1st quarter, the production and sales of the motorcycles reached 5,541,300 and 5,629,900 vehicles respectively, both decreased by 8.8% compared with the same period of the last year.
2.3 Import of NR and compound rubber
According to the data statistics of China Customs, in March 2012, the imported TSNR was 133,200 tons, decreased by 9.2% compared with the same period of the last year, and the imports was USD 493 million, decreased by 36.5% compared with the same period of the last year; other imported unvulcanized compound rubber in primary forms in March was 70,600 tons, increased by 9.5% compared with the same period of the last year, and the imports was USD 255 million, decreased by 24.6% compared with the same period of the last year. Refer to Fig. 25 for the price trend of TSNR since 2009.
Fig. 25 Price Trend of TSNR
2.4 Prices of bulk raw materials
In March 2012, the highest sales price of imported 3# rubber smoked sheet was RMB 30,400 yuan/ton, increased by 1.33% compared with the last month; the highest sales price of 5# standard rubber was RMB 31,800 yuan/ton, increased by 7.8% compared with the last month; the highest sales price of 20# standard rubber was RMB 30,500 yuan/ton, increased by 7.02% compared with the last month; the highest sales price of BR was RMB 29,000 yuan/ton, increased by 3.57% compared with the last month; and the highest sales price of 1500 SBR was RMB 26,000 yuan/ton, increased by 4.0% compared with the last month.
3. Main Characteristics and Analysis of Industry Economy Operation in the 1st Quarter of 2012
3.1 The growths of major economic indicators of the industry in the 1st quarter were all weaker than the same period of the last year, and only realized slight growths. However, the growths showed steady trend.
Among the major economic indicators of the industry in the 1st quarter of this year, compared with the same period of the last year, the industrial output value at current price increased by 9.35% with the growth decreased by 11.29%; and the sales revenue increased by 6.84% with the growth decreased by 15.81%, in which, the industrial output value at current price and the sales revenue of tire industry realized year-on-year growths of 9.64% and 5.95% respectively, with the growths decreased by 15.05% and 19.95% compared with the same period of the last year; the industrial output value at current price and the sales revenue of cycle tire industry realized year-on-year growths of 3.53% and 5.02% respectively, with the growths decreased by 2.73% and 0.22% compared with the same period of the last year; and the industrial output value at current price and the sales revenue of rubber hoses & rubber belts industry realized year-on-year growths of 12.07% and 9.47% respectively, with the growths decreased by 4.6% and 7.26% compared with the same period of the last year.
Although the growths in the 1st quarter were limited, the continual narrowing trend of the above two indicators in recent two years changed and showed steady trend.
3.2 The industry export was in slump, with growth greatly weaker than the same period of the last year.
The faltering demand of international market and the continual appreciation of RMB brought unheard-of difficulties to the industry export. The soaring price of international crude oil further slowed down the economic recovery of developed countries in Europe, America, etc. and increased the uncertainty of industry export. According to the statistics of CRIA on key member enterprises, in the 1st quarter, compared with the same period of the last year, the export delivery value of the industry only increased by 10.36%, with the growth decreased by 27.75%, in which, the export delivery value of tire industry only increased by 7.83%, with the growth decreased by 36.51%.
The importing status of NR from customs also showed the depression of industry export at present. In recent two months, the growth of imported standard rubber volume from customs was apparently weaker than the growth of imported compound rubber volume. However, in the last year, the imported compound rubber volume showed downturn trend. Such change in the structure of basic raw materials goes against the upgrading and updating of products in rubber industry as well as the structural regulation and technical advancement of the industry, and will affect the quality improvement of rubber products such as tires. The underlying solution to change this trend is to regulate the tariff policy of NR. The industry urgently hopes that the state will further reduce or abolish the import duty for providing assisting force for the transformation and upgrading of rubber industry.
3.3 Benefit status of the industry showed optimistic trend.
According to the statistics of CRIA on member enterprises, the economic benefits of the industry showed optimistic trend in the 1st quarter. The profit rate of sales revenue of the industry reached 3.71% with a year-on-year growth of 0.87% and month-on-month growth of 0.58%, in which, the profit rate of sales revenue of tire industry reached 3.69% with a year-on-year growth of 1.12%, the profit rate of sales revenue of cycle tire industry reached 7.05% with a year-on-year growth of 1.28%, and the profit rate of sales revenue of rubber hoses & rubber belts industry reached 6.11% with a year-on-year growth of 1.16%.
However, the rebounding and rising trend of prices of bulk raw materials such as NR and SR, the soaring price of product oil and the increasing human power cost will sharpen the cost pressure of the industry. Meanwhile, affected by the structure of raw materials, the industrial transformation and upgrading may be slowed down, which will go against the continual improvement of industrial operation status.
3.4 The output growths of such products as carbon black, rubber chemicals and moulds increased compared with the same period of the last year, and showed optimistic trend in advance of such rubber products as tire.
According to the statistics of CRIA on key member enterprises, the output growths of upstream rubber products such as carbon black, rubber chemicals and moulds increased compared with the same period of the last year, in which, the carbon black output had a year-on-year growth of 19.6% and the growth increased by 10.91% compared with the same period of the last year; the rubber chemicals output had a year-on-year growth of 25.05% and the growth increased by 21.22% compared with the same period of the last year; and the mould output had a year-on-year growth of 15.81% and the growth increased by 9.72% compared with the same period of the last year.
